PL Predictions: Can Everton beat unconvincing Newcastle?

Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight for an intriguing Monday Night Football.

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Newcastle vs Everton, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

The betting market is yet to be convinced by Newcastle and their price to beat Everton at St James' Park tells its own story.

At 5/4 with Sky Bet, this is the biggest price they have been to win this fixture in their last six home meetings. For context, across the previous two seasons they were priced at 7/10 and even 1/4 to beat the Toffees on home soil.

So what has changed? The underlying numbers are hardly screaming that Newcastle are a team to trust with Eddie Howe gone.

Matthias Jaissle has plenty to prove in the Premier League with Newcastle currently recording an expected-goals supremacy of -0.58 per game - the third-worst figure in the division. That is a worrying metric for a side being asked to justify favouritism at home.

Their win over Crystal Palace last weekend did little to silence those doubts. Newcastle lost the expected-goals battle, the shot count and the corner count, making the result look rather fortunate when you dig beneath the surface.

Everton are worth taking seriously at this price. With Newcastle looking vulnerable, I am happy to oppose the hosts and give ourselves the insurance of the draw by backing Everton on the draw no bet market at 11/10 with Sky Bet.

Jones Knows' best bets...

  • Under 2.5 goals in Chelsea vs Man Utd (11/8 with Sky Bet)
  • Hull to beat Ipswich (8/5 with Sky Bet)
  • Calvin Bassey +3 foul involvements (Evens with Sky Bet)
  • Tottenham -1 handicap (11/8 with Sky Bet)

Original source PL Predictions: Can Everton beat unconvincing Newcastle?

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